Historical synthetic study. This earlier example and its evidence remain available for inspection. Explore the current CRONUS review and optional planning story. Its figures and benefits must not be combined with this study.

AGX Finance · Working-capital decision study · Updated 24 October 2026

Borrow or move
permitted payments?

A fictional distributor faces a four-week delay in $12 million of collections. Compare its payment calendar with a coordinated alternative, using the same forecast and $10 million weekly cash minimum. See the funding benefit and the supplier-payment trade-off.

Synthetic company study. The company, supplier permissions and forecast are demonstration assumptions. Results are modeled outcomes, not achieved customer savings. Tests used accounting and simulated banking systems; they do not establish customer or production readiness.

Delayed-collection case · US dollars

Same discounts. No bridge loan.

$144,000lower interest expense over 13 weeks
$10 millionless peak borrowing required
$113,221.50supplier discounts retained in both plans

The trade-off is later supplier settlement. The selected plan pays $23,867,250 less in the first two weeks and finishes the original invoices in week 8 instead of week 6, within the assumed permissions. Management must confirm that this flexibility is commercially acceptable.

The incremental benefit is $144,000 lower modeled interest. The $10 million is borrowing avoided, and both plans retain the same discounts. Results depend on the reviewed forecast; adoption and operating costs are excluded.

01 / Decision & trade-off

Preserve discounts.
Move permitted payments.

The operating calendar pays on stated due dates, or earlier to capture available discounts, and selects the least-cost permitted borrowing. It is a designed comparison policy, not an observed customer process. The AGX coordinated plan also chooses when to pay within each supplier’s allowed dates.

Over the 13-week planOperating calendarAGX coordinated plan
Supplier payments through week 2$43,045,078.50$19,177,828.50
Last payment of original supplier invoicesWeek 6Week 8
Supplier discounts$113,221.50$113,221.50
Interest expense$144,000.00$0.00
Peak borrowing$10,000,000.00$0.00
Lowest cash above the $10 million minimum$2,890,210.54$14,906,975.90

Payments move; no liability disappears and no extra discount is assumed. The calculation assigns no invented value to supplier relationships or avoided disruption. The permitted dates must reflect management’s contracts and supplier priorities.

Cash headroom means closing cash above the required $10 million minimum. It is separate from savings. The calculation minimizes interest less discounts; it does not maximize cash protection. Other equally low-cost schedules may retain different amounts of cash.

02 / Results & coverage

What changes under
tighter conditions?

Four business conditions compare the operating calendar with coordinated payment timing. A fifth check fixes every payment and funding choice to the reference and must reproduce it exactly. There are twelve evaluated plans. The narrower-supplier-terms case was corrected and rerun with fresh approval on 24 October; the other cases retain their 20 October calculations. Financial facts and the planning forecast are unchanged.

Amounts below are US dollars. Cash headroom is measured against the same $10 million weekly minimum, using each case’s approved forecast.

CaseLower interest expensePeak borrowing
Calendar / AGX
Lowest cash above minimum
Calendar / AGX
Normal operations$144,000.00$10,000,000.00 / $0.00$4,690,210.54 / $16,776,521.50
Customer pays four weeks later$144,000.00$10,000,000.00 / $0.00$2,890,210.54 / $14,906,975.90
25% of opening cash unavailable$216,000.00$15,000,000.00 / $0.00$1,737,975.49 / $11,738,196.51
Less supplier payment flexibility$72,000.00$5,000,000.00 / $0.00$2,898,761.54 / $16,744,172.50
No-discretion check · repeated for each caseExactly $0Identical to referenceIdentical to reference

Both policies capture $113,221.50 of discounts in the normal, delayed-collection and restricted-cash cases. With narrower supplier terms, both capture $80,872.50. All reported cost differences are interest. These are alternative conditions, not benefits to add together or annualize.

What changes in each case?
  • Normal operations: the reviewed forecast and original permissions.
  • Collection delay: six invoices from the largest outstanding customer, totaling $12 million, move four weeks later. The amount owed is unchanged.
  • Cash restriction: $5,038,324.99—25% of opening cash—is reserved and unavailable for this plan. It remains company cash, not an expense.
  • Limited flexibility: fifteen critical-supplier invoices must be paid in their stated due week. The corrected calculation verifies all fifteen dates in both submitted requests and resulting schedules. Both policies forgo $32,349 of discounts available under the wider permissions. Coordinating the remaining choices avoids a $5 million bridge draw and $72,000 of interest. The earlier submission omitted these restrictions; it remains in the historical evidence and is superseded.
  • No discretion: both payment dates and financing choices are fixed to the operating-calendar result. Cost, weekly cash and debt match exactly.

03 / Management authority

Approve the scope.
Check the result.

Before calculation, the reviewer approves the exact inputs, permitted choices and financial engine version. Changing the approved decision requires fresh approval. Approval to calculate does not authorize payments or borrowing.

Inspect the comparison and verification checks
  • Match the records. Imported accounting balances and the defined simulated-bank statement period matched to the cent.
  • Keep the comparison fair. Both plans receive identical cash forecasts, essential obligations, minimum cash requirements and financing terms.
  • Verify the financial result. All twelve current plans passed the modeled financial checks and a separate check of the saved calculation. The corrected supplier-terms case also checks that every intended fixed date reached the engine. Verification is conditional on the approved inputs and rules; it does not establish that customers will pay as forecast.
  • Retain the decision record. The evidence identifies inputs, permissions, approval and engine versions, selected payment dates, borrowing and results.

Treasury reviews cash and funding, Accounts Payable confirms the supplier terms, and Controllership checks the records. The calculation informs their decision; it moves no money.

04 / Collection risk

The forecast can
still be wrong.

The latest forecast separates expected collections from a more conservative planning forecast. The comparison above uses the planning forecast. Both are estimates based on the synthetic company’s payment history.

In a subsequent test of 1,000 simulated collection paths for the normal-case schedules, the operating calendar fell below the cash minimum in 24 paths. The selected AGX schedule did not breach it in those paths. These counts describe the test—not real-world probabilities.

Forecast risk remains material. In the 1,000-path test, planning receipts ran as much as $10.75 million ahead of simulated receipts at a weekly cutoff. More conservative planning is not a guarantee of cash availability. See the full forecast measures and their limits.

A separate test in AGX’s decision workspace confirmed that a detected shortfall is shown for review before the result can be reused or the calculation repeated. Automatic recalculation pauses. Reviewing the shortfall does not remove the separate financial approval requirement.

Inspect the additional collection-delay check

A further check across the collection delays represented in that test history found a $3,778.57 shortfall in week 2 for the operating calendar. The selected AGX schedule retained at least $13,097,004.78 above the minimum. This check holds other receipts, outflows and decisions fixed; it does not cover every possible shock.

What happened through the following 13 weeks?

The eight current comparison paths were followed through week 26 using the company’s simulated settlement dates, including the two corrected supplier-terms schedules. All remained above the cash minimum on that particular path. This is a different test from the 1,000 collection variations above.

CaseLowest cash above minimum
Operating calendar
Lowest cash above minimum
AGX
Normal operations$6,746,221.48$9,940,371.48
Customer pays four weeks later$4,946,221.48$9,940,371.48
25% of opening cash unavailable$4,048,249.83$4,902,046.49
Less supplier payment flexibility$4,954,772.48$9,908,022.48

All $78,663,300 of original supplier invoices were settled, and the modeled loan balance was zero at the end. Cash movements balanced to the cent. Continuing trading still left $78,663,300 of supplier balances and $122,950,000.02 of customer receivables at week 26; this is an ongoing company, not a liquidation.

Weeks 14–26 keep the week-13 cash minimum. This is an accounting follow-through of the selected plan, not a new 26-week optimization.

05 / Basis & evidence

Inspect the comparison.
Keep its limits.

The study tests a payment and funding comparison for a fictional distributor. Supplier permissions, cash requirements and financing terms are assumptions. The accounting and simulated-bank records share the same underlying movements; they are not independent confirmation from a real bank.

Inspect the source systems and financial assumptions

The study uses a fictional wholesale distributor designed at a $1 billion annual operating scale, with 52 weeks of history and a 13-week planning period.

Microsoft Dynamics 365 Business Central is the accounting system. Its CRONUS sample company hosts the test invoices and settlements. Plaid Sandbox is a bank-connection test environment; it supplies simulated balances and transactions made from the same accounting movements. Their agreement demonstrates that the integration reconciles—not independent confirmation from a real bank.

Supplier permissions, discount eligibility, cash requirements and borrowing terms are explicit study assumptions, not actual customer or lender contracts. The financial model uses weekly balances, whole-invoice payments and one loan. Read the financing terms and coverage limits.

The download retains the financial submissions, supporting records, all reported forecast checks and unfavorable outcomes. Its notes distinguish the freshly approved supplier-terms correction from the retained cases. The prior unqualified submission remains in the historical evidence; its financial records have not been rewritten. It excludes proprietary source code, internal service addresses and personal account data. Evidence scope and version details explain what readers can check.

The demonstration establishes a controlled comparison under disclosed assumptions. It does not establish achieved customer returns, independently measured forecast accuracy or production readiness. Verification took place in a development environment using live connections to test systems. No payments or borrowing were executed.

Our lead assurance offer is covenant verification. Optional planning builds on reviewed constraints, with its own forecast, permissions and approval. The combined covenant example shows how a covenant can change the preferred plan. ABL is complementary and is not connected to planning. The studies use different fictional companies; their benefits cannot be combined.

Apply it to your decision

Ask Treasury and AP
to compare one plan.

Start with one entity and one 13-week comparison, using your records, reviewed forecast and permitted payment dates. Controllership checks the supporting figures. Agree fit, preparation, effort and fees first; the wider pilot is optional.

Review the pilot scope →